Economists suggest that India’s gross domestic product is on its way to the elusive $4 trillion mark, potentially within closer reach than anticipated.
In the Union Budget 2023-24, India’s expected nominal GDP stands at Rs 301.75 lakh crore, depicting a remarkable 10.5% surge from the preceding fiscal year’s estimated Rs 272.41 lakh crore. Translating this figure to USD, the projection manifests as a GDP of $3.63 trillion for the ongoing fiscal year.”
Amid speculation fueled by a viral image hinting at India’s ascent to a $4 trillion GDP, there remains a lack of official confirmation or denial. The National Statistical Office, overseen by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, traditionally releases India’s GDP estimates on a set calendar, forming the bedrock of assessments by both domestic and international agencies.
This image’s circulation sparked fervent discussions on social media, with many contemplating India’s potential as the world’s third-largest economy. Despite the buzz, experts like Madan Sabnavis, Bank of Baroda’s Chief Economist, expressed skepticism. Sabnavis suggested that achieving a nominal GDP of approximately Rs 330 lakh crore, equating to $4 trillion, would require a 10% growth by 2024-25—an ambitious prospect given the current economic landscape.
Since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, global economies have remarkably rebounded with positive GDP growth. Through diverse strategies and stimulus measures, nations have shown resilience, recovering at varying paces. This resurgence highlights the interconnectedness of economies and their ability to adapt and recover from crises.
Predicting an unprecedented period of economic upswing, experts forecast a universal positive trajectory for all countries from 2024 to 2028. Projections suggest a notable absence of negative declines during this span, marking a collective trend of growth across diverse global economies. Factors like enhanced global cooperation, innovative technological advancements, robust fiscal policies, and increasing trade collaborations are anticipated to fuel this era of sustained expansion. This optimistic outlook paints a picture of unprecedented stability, fostering an environment where nations collectively ascend without experiencing any substantial downturns. However, while forecasts offer promise, unforeseen events or geopolitical shifts could potentially alter this trajectory. Nonetheless, this anticipated period of global growth signifies a hopeful phase for worldwide economic prosperity.
Rahul Bajoria, the Chief Economist at Barclays India, projected that India won’t likely achieve a $4 trillion GDP until late 2024 or early 2025, sharing his perspective on X (formerly Twitter). Presently, for this fiscal year, India’s anticipated nominal GDP hovers around Rs 300 trillion, translating to approximately $3.65 trillion based on current exchange rates. The National Statistical Office routinely computes India’s GDP quarterly, with the upcoming release for the July-September 2023 quarter scheduled for Nov. 31. Initial data from the April-June quarter indicates promising growth, with the real GDP reaching Rs 40.37 lakh crore, signifying a 7.8% increase from the previous year. Correspondingly, the nominal GDP, or the GDP at current prices, stands at an estimated Rs 70.67 lakh crore, reflecting an 8% growth.
